No coalition. No majority. Collapse of regime. General Election. In a word, Toast.
MOST LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ARE AIMING FOR AN ALLIANCE WITH LABOUR: David Cameron should be under no illusions as to who he's sharing his political bed with. Clegg is not the Liberal Democrat party. A few Orange Bookers including Clegg, Laws, Alexander and Browne are not representative although they've seized control of their party. Cable is closer to the true ideological centre of the Liberal Democrats and his Guardian interview, on Saturday, in which heopenly discussed building an anti-Tory progressive majority is the political project that most Liberal Democrats are working towards. We are in alliance with a party that largely wants our defeat.
This is on Conservative home under http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/04/david-cameron-should-prepare-for-an-early-general-election.html
The only way for the right-minded vote to survive the end of the coalition between C and LD, and the creation of a new coalition between Labour and LD, is to form an immediate electoral arrangement with UKIP, who have risen recently to 8%. That means dumping David Cameron. Even then UKIP plus Conservative would be starting at 40% against Labour plus Lib Dem starting from 50%.
Yet a revolution in British politics on the right would trigger a whole new possibility as to the direction the country could go. A party standing to get out of the EU would see a surge in support. Farage should be in conflab with Conservative backbenchers right now.
If AV is rejected, and the coalition disintegrates, Cameron and Hague are finished, their Lib Dem love-bombing strategy in tatters. Remember that the law is being changed to facilitate joint emblems on ballot papers. That will be UKIP/Conservative, not LDC as originally intended.
JOHN REDWOOD writes -