Sunday, February 28, 2010

Sarkozy's Disappearing Hurricane

I clicked on a CNN report about a heavy 'storm battering Europe. 53 dead' on Sunday (i.e. today). My first thgought was where was this storm, as Europe stretches from Spain to Moscow. It cannot have taken place over the whole continent, I was thinking, and certainly not in the bit I was sitting in, where there was little 'weather' going on.

After clicking on, I found that the report repeated the story headline in the first part of the text. A winter storm named "Xynthia" battered the western coast of Europe Sunday, its high winds downing trees and power lines and leaving as many as 53 people dead, authorities said.

Only in the second sentence did I get any idea of where this storm really occurred, and when did a 'winter storm' ever get a name like Xynthia, unless it was a hurricane, and one that could speak French?

Hardest hit was France the report at last revealed, where at least 45 people were killed, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced.
The extra-tropical cyclone whipped the country's coastal regions and moved inland, bringing sometimes heavy flooding with it.

Heavy flooding. OK. That sounds like a massive downpour. The report goes on, unable to state the word 'hurricane' even though this is by now plainly what has taken place..

"It's a national catastrophe," Fillon said in a brief news conference following an emergency meeting on the situation. "Many people drowned, surprised by the rapid rise of the water. So it really is a hurricane hitting France almost exclusively and not anywhere else in Europe, apart from a little incidental damage elsewhere. Why not say so?

"Now the priority is to bring all the people left homeless and still threatened by the rising waters to safety," the prime minister explained. "All services are mobilized to reach that goal as soon as possible."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will visit the department of Charente-Maritime Monday, Fillon said. Charente-Maritime and Vendee, on the French coast west of Paris, had severe flooding when the strong winds whipped up the water at high tide.

So the flooding was not caused by torrential rain, then, but more by high seas, New Orleans style.

"At 3 o'clock in the morning, we heard the toilets backing up. We got up to look and then we saw 80 cm (about 31 inches) of water in the garage," a resident of Aiguillon-Sur-Mer, in the department of Vendee, told CNN affiliate BFM-TV.
"It was rushing in, it broke down the walls around the garden and the gate." Hundreds of people had to be rescued from their rooftops overnight.

That sounds almost tsunami-like, hurricane symptomatic.

"The water was up to the gutters," said one woman, who spent the night on the roof with her children. Residents of the village of Aytre, in Charente-Maritime, saw a wave of water measuring 1 meter high (about 1 yard) come into the center of town.
"It was unreal," Aytre Mayor Suzanne Tallard told BFM-TV.

Yes. It does sound unreal, and not quite true. In the sense that this could not be caused by anything as small as a mere 'storm'. The story goes on.

At least 1 million households were without power Sunday afternoon, Bernard Lassus of Electricite de France said in an interview on BFM-TV. The high winds -- at times spiking to 200 km/h (124 mph) -- reached inland as far as Paris, where as many as 100 flights were canceled at the Paris-Charles de Gaulle International Airport, BFM reported.
Gusts up to 175 km/h (108 mph) were measured at the top of the Eiffel Tower Saturday, reported CNN International Meteorologist Eboni Deon.
The hurricane-strength winds stretched from Portugal northeast to the Netherlands. The system was moving toward the Baltic Sea, Deon said, and a second front was moving into the region of Portugal and Spain later in the day.

Now the tsunami has definitely become a hurricane. OK. They cannot say it was a hurricane and actually use the word for some reason, but we now know it had hurricane-strength winds.

In Spain, three people were killed in the first band of the storm, Spanish Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba said Sunday. Two children died in a car accident and another person was killed in northwestern Spain, the minister said in a news conference on CNN sister station CNN+.
At least 17 provinces were on high alert due to the strong winds, CNN+ reported, and some flights and train services were canceled.

OK. Spain was marginally affected, and was at least on alert. But not hit.

A 10-year-old child was killed by a falling tree in the high winds in Portugal, Patricia Gaspar, National Operations Assistant with the Portuguese National Authority for Civil Protection, confirmed to CNN. There are also some power outages in the country, Gaspar said.
Some residents have reported roofs blown off and smaller houses collapsing, she added.

So not a lot in Portugal to talk of except some pompous sounding officials getting in front of a microphone.

Hurricanes normally make landfall in a fairly specific point, but on CNN there is no indication of where the hurricane struck. The same storm allegedly passed through Spain, Portugal and then Southern Germany according to the ever expanding scope of this report. It goes on -

Two people were killed in Germany as a result of the storm, officials said. One man was killed in Feldberg-Baerental in southwestern Germany when a tree fell on his car, police said. The man's wife was seriously injured. A woman was killed by a falling tree in western Germany near Bergheim, authorities said.

Belgium too.

A man was also killed by a falling tree in Belgium, Peter Mertens, a spokesman for Belgium's Interior Ministry, confirmed to CNN. Eastern Belgium has seen the worst of the storm, Mertens said. "They've had problems with fallen trees, roofs blown off and electricity cables not working. But it seems the worst part has passed now," he added.

But then the whole report, already stupendously unclear as to what exactly is going on, starts to get silly.

The storm also reached England, where one woman was reported dead when the vehicle she was driving became submerged and washed down a swollen creek in the northeastern part of the country. The body of the 53-year-old woman was recovered downstream, North Yorkshire Police said in a recorded phone message to the media.

I saw that news report about the floods in Yorkshire two days ago. It was a separate incident. Maybe they don't listen to their recorded messages at CNN often enough.

In any case this was indeed a politically correct storm, which knew that all these countries were part of the same political entity. France might have been caught with her pants down and her weather forecasters failing to predict a hurricane, which seems likely, and is maybe the reason for all the strange covering-up and failure to use the actual word 'hurricane'.

Out of this very real catastrophe, which is partly being denied by French officialdom, CNN have decided to create a kind of bonding between Europe's citizens implying that they have all been equally affected. Except they haven't.

Not many weather reports belittle a hurricane, calling it a storm and give little indication as to what kind of weather event really took place. But this report was as much political as meteorological. I would like to read a straightforward report of what happened, and not have to wade through the equivalent of a meteorological European Song Contest, having my national loyalties quietly manipulated into more European form, while French officialdom is allowed to save face, spreading out the pain equally in the traditional French manner.

Let me summarise what really happened. The French were struck by a hurricane with no warning from their globally warmed weather service. To hide their embarrassment, the 'storm' (not hurricane) has to be reported as striking every country west of Poland, including Britain, making the whole event into a politically positive disaster where we are all EU citizens facing evil weather as one nation. The weather has clearly signed up to the Lisbon Treaty and is now European and not national.

The French were obviously blameless for not realising it was coming. Judging by CNN's efforts, the political storm is being dealt with much more purposefully than the actual one.

The Spanish had clearly expected the 'storm' to make landfall further South as their weather service had issued warnings -

WSJ - The (Spanish) national weather agency had warned that a violent cyclone depression had formed over the Atlantic Ocean and was to cross areas bordering the Bay of Biscay.

There is no mention in any report yet seen, of the French issuing a weather warning. Maybe a reader will put me right, but it seems the storm was expected to land further south. It's like in the USA, hurricanes occasionally make landfall as far north as New York. Sarkozy saw what Katrina did to Bush. Is that why Xynthia is being so carefully news-managed?

The BBC report a 'European' storm also - HERE. No mention of the H word either. Xynthia was only a storm after all, hardly one in a teacup, and not a mere French storm either. They've learned a lot from seeing how a hurricane can smash a political reputation. Sarkozy's Hurricane becomes a European Storm, and bingo, his reputation's safe.

Deja Vu Poll Tampering And Bullying Indicates Something Is Up

In a move which reminded one of the false polling which preceded the second Irish referendum vote, two newspapers from the same stable, today reported the latest daily You Gov poll with completely different results. The News Of the World said the Conservative lead was 2%, while the Sunday Times, reporting on exactly the same poll found that the results were not 2%, but 6%. In the later print edition of the Sunday Times, however, the result was altered to match the NOWT. 2% it was.

A very similar event had happened in the days just before the 2nd Irish referendum. The Irish Times Online originally reported a poll with the AYES and the NOES given as neck and neck, at 52:48 respectively. But when the Irish TV channel RTE reported exactly the same poll at 60% to YES and 40% to NO, the Irish Times web edition was altered to match RTE.

So tonight I feel as if I am suffering from a nasty attack of deja vu.

When the polling numbies start to make such basic errors as this, it is a bit of a giveaway.

My mother used to always tell me that 'cheats never prosper'. But what you need to keep in mind is that the polls are not being used to measure public opinion. They are being used to demoralise opponents, and build confidence in Labour's ranks. They are also being used to create an expectation of the result of the coming election, for maybe another purpose.

This, for example, is what you would expect to be seeing at this stage if the marginal seats were going to be rigged. The government would first need to ensure that a Labour Victory was expected before one is created.

You won't see a great deal of evidence of an election in the process of being rigged, but when polls are being tampered with, it does give you a strong clue that something might be up. The Irish Referendum results hangs under a heavy cloud os supicion. In a few weeks we could be experiencing a very similar feeling over the UK election result.

Labour are not beyond electoral fraud as the events surrounding the Glenrothes byelection indicate. Massive postal voting. An unexpected Labour Victory, and then the Register went missing when the SNP asked if they could do some checks. When it turned up four months later, the details had all been blanked. The pieces of the 'Labour Victory Through Cheating' jigsaw are all starting to fall into place.

The Labour electoral plan was declared in early December through Francis Elliott and Sam Coates writing in The Times. In the article, LINK HERE, they stated that 'Labour Election Planners' had decided that an 8% Tory lead at January 1st would be reduced to 0% by election day in a succession of polls. At the time this was printed, the Tory lead was 13% and the reduction to 0% in three months seemed a pretty unlikely eventuality, but the language in which the plan was phrased, indicated that the LEPs had little doubt that they would be getting from the pollsters what they were demanding.

The same plan was repeated in The Guardian a week later in which it was stated that a Conservative lead of 10% in the New Year would be reduced to 0%. The first poll in the NY was exactly a 10% lead, and the progressive reduction has faithfully been delivered by pollsters since.

Within another week or two we will no doubt see the first 0% Tory lead poll.

Here is, what was, at the time, the extraordinary claim that the Tory lead would be reduced to nil by election day, as reported on 7th December 2009.

Labour’s election planners believe an 8-point gap between the current party of Government and the Tories can be closed. They say that a third of Lib Dem voters have suggested that they might vote Labour, which would equate to 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, they believe that the numbers currently saying they support “others" in polls — greens, BNP and UKIP — may go back to Labour, closing the gap by a further 3 percentage points.

Here is how Political Betting reported the strange goings-on surrounding the latest You Gov Poll and the Sunday Times and the NOTW. LINK.

COMMENT on Political Betting from Nick Palmer MP

28.Could have been a cockup, or wanting to hold back a big story. As GIN says, it doesn’t really matter, except for Tapestry, who presumably think the Sunday Times is part of a pro-Labour conspiracy.
by Nick Palmer MP February 28th, 2010 at 10:36 am
Tapestry = me BTW.

My reply to Nick Palmer -

576.28. If Labour Election Planners inform News International that the polls should be interpreted with a 2% result, then they would not find it in their interests to refuse.

Fraser Nelson had his lobby pass removed, and was on the end of a libel suit from Whelan, a week after he called the election lost by Labour.

The bullying does not stop inside Downing Street!!!!

by Tapestry February 28th, 2010 at 8:00 pm

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Who Owns The Bank Of England?

"The essence of the contemporary monetary system is creation of money,out of nothing, by private banks"Martin Wolf,Financial Times,9th November 2010. quoted by

LATEST UPDATE - banks directors named

You ask the question, Who Owns The Bank Of England? to one thousand Britons, and I kid you not, all of them will say that it is owned by the Government.

They would be wrong.

The Bank Of England was originally a private bank, which contracted to lend money to the British Government in a financial crisis. It was privately owned at its foundation and remained so until the post-war Labour government nationalised it in 1946.

So it is owned by the government?


Here is how Wikipedia explains it.

In 1977, the Bank set up a wholly owned subsidiary called Bank of England Nominees Limited, (BOEN), a private limited company, with 2 of its 100 £1 shares issued. According to its Memorandum & Articles of Association, its objectives are:- “To act as Nominee or agent or attorney either solely or jointly with others, for any person or persons, partnership, company, corporation, government, state, organisation, sovereign, province, authority, or public body, or any group or association of them….”

Bank of England Nominees Limited was granted an exemption by Edmund Dell, Secretary of State for Trade, from the disclosure requirements under Section 27(9) of the Companies Act 1976 , because, “it was considered undesirable that the disclosure requirements should apply to certain categories of shareholders.” The Bank of England is also protected by its Royal Charter status, and the Official Secrets Act.

In other words, you and I are not allowed to know who the shareholders are who own the company which carries out Central Banking in the UK. Some people say that Mandelson's buddies, the Rothschilds are major shareholders. Also the Queen. But the information is secret. We are not allowed to know.

But what would surprise everybody is that the Bank Of England, which is entitled to issue cash, then lend it and charge interest to the government, is still essentially a private business.

What would also surprise people is so is the Federal Reserve of America a privately owned bank, and all central banks of the world, including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland, which is the Central Banks' clearing house.

(For a history of central banking -

If the One World Government actually had an address, this would be part of it - the B.I.S, another privately owned bank, the central bankers' central bank, beyond the control of democracy or government, able to influence events secretly from behind the scenes. One thing is for sure is that in times of financial crisis, these central banking networks become supremely powerful, as those like Gordon Brown allow their countries to become effectively indebted to the point of loss of control.

The people wielding this power see the world's financial crisis as their moment of opportunity to seize greater power. The scary part of that is that hardly a living soul even knows they exist. Now that's real power.

What's all this about?

Professor Carroll Quigley wrote a book on who ruled the the USA and Britain between 1870 and 1960, called Tragedy And Hope: A History Of The World In Our Time.  His publisher MacMillan, was taken over as they first published his book, and the plates and the manuscript were destroyed.  But not before a handful of them had been sold.  In this book, Professor Quigley wrote  -

The power of the Bank Of England and of its governor was admitted by most qualified observers.  In January 1924, Reginald McKenna, who had been Chancellor Of The Exchequer in 1915-1916, as Chairman of the Board of The Midland Bank, told its stockholder:"I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can, and do, create money...And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow in their hands the destiny of the people."

Quigley also wrote -

..the powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole."

Another book continues the story, Secret Records Revealed  by Dr Dennis Cuddy -

On August 5th 1995, the New York Times published an article by Keith Bradsher, in which he wrote -
In a small Swiss city sits an international organisation so obscure and secretive...Control of the institution, the Bank for International Settlements, lies with some of the world's most powerful and least visible men: the heads of thirty-two central banks, officials able to shift billions of dollars at the stroke of a pen."

On June 28th 1998, The Washington Post published an article about the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) titled, "At Secret Meetings in Switzerland, 13 people shape the world's economy", which described these individuals as "this economic cabal...this secretive group...the financial barons who control the world's supply of money."

Quigley again -

Each Central bank sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

They are not all Jewish by the way.

Dr Stan Monteith in The Brotherhood Of Darkness (Anomolos) writes -

Anti-Semitism is a smokescreen created to conceal the identity of the true enemy.

He explains that the objective of the secretive groups is to bring about the surrender of sovereignty and of national independence.


The Bank of England has played a prominent role in American history -- without it, the United States would not exist.

The American colonists considered themselves loyal Englishmen to a man, but when they began to enjoy unequalled prosperity by printing and circulating their own Colonial scrip, the stockholders of the Bank of England went to George III and informed him that their monopoly of interest-bearing notes in the colonies was at stake. He banned the scrip, with the result that there was an immediate depression in the commercial life of the Americas. This was the cause of the Rebellion; as Benjamin Franklin pointed out, the little tax on tea, amounting to about a dollar a year per American family, could have been borne, but the colonists could not survive the banning of their own money.

Early descriptions of the shareholders of the Bank of England identify them as "a Society of about 1300 persons". They included the King and Queen of England, who received shares to the value of 10,000 pounds each; Marlborough, who invested 10,000 pounds -- he also invested large sums from his "commissions" in the East India Co. in 1697, and later became Governor of the Hudson Bay Company, which paid a 75% dividend; Lord Shrewsbury, who invested 10,000 pounds; Godolphin, who invested 7000 pounds -- he predicted that the Bank of England would not only finance trade, but would carry the burden of her wars, which was proven true in the next three hundred years. Virginia Cowles writes, in "The Great Marlborough": "England emerged from the war as the dominant force, because the Bank of England's credit system enabled her to bear the burden of war without undue strain."




The Bank of England and the Rothschilds continued to play a dominant role in the commercial life of the United States, causing panics and depressions for the Rothschilds whenever their officials were instructed to do so. When the Second Bank of the United States expired in 1836, and President Jackson refused to renew it, [thus] creating great prosperity in the United States when government funds were deposited in other banks, the Rothschilds punished the upstarts by causing the Panic of 1837. As Henry Clews writes in "Twenty-Eight Years on Wall Street", p. 157: "The Panic of 1837 was aggravated by the Bank of England when it in one day threw out all the paper connected with the United States."

By refusing to credit American notes and stocks, the Bank of England created financial panic among the holders of that paper. The panic enabled Rothschild's agents, Peabody and Belmont, to reap a fortune in buying up depreciated stocks during the panic.

The Bank of England has played a prominent role in wars, revolutions, and espionage, as well as business panics. When Napoleon escaped from Elba in 1815, the London gold market jumped overnight from 4lb.6d to 5lb.7d. The leading buyer was Nathan Mayer Rothschild, who was under orders from the British Treasury to dispatch gold to the Duke of Wellington, grouping to stop Napoleon. After Waterloo, the price of gold dropped.

During the twentieth century, the most important name at the Bank of England was Lord Montagu Norman. His grandfather, George Warde Norman, had been governor of the Bank of England from 1821-1872, longer than any other man; his other grandfather, Lord Collet, was Governor of the Bank of England from 1887-89, and managing partner of Brown Shipley Co. in London for twenty-five years.

In 1894, Montague Norman was sent to New York to work in the offices of Brown Brothers; he was befriended by the W.A. Delano family, and lived with the Markoe family, partners of Brown Bros. In 1907, Norman was elected to the Court of the Bank of England. In 1912, he had a severe nervous breakdown, and was treated by [Carl] Jung in Switzerland. He became deputy governor of the Bank of England in 1916, and later served until 1944 as Governor. The Wall Street Journal wrote of him in 1927:

"Mr. M. Collet Norman, the Governor of the Bank of England, is now head and shoulders above all other British bankers. No other British banker has ever been as independent and supreme in the world of British finance as Mr. Norman is today. He has just been elected Governor for the eighth year in succession. Before the war, no Governor was allowed to hold office for more than two years; but Mr. Norman has broken all precedents. He runs his Bank and his Treasury as well. He appears to have no associations except his employees. He gives no interviews. He leaves the British financial world wholly in the thick as to his plans and ideas."

above from WASP


Early day motion 1297
Print version
Session: 2008-09
Date tabled: 20.04.2009
Primary sponsor: Mitchell, Austin
Sponsors: Cohen, Harry Cryer, Ann Illsley, Eric McDonnell, John Taylor, David
That this House, observing that the intention of the founding Act of the Bank of England in 1694 was `that their Majesties' subjects may not be oppressed by the said corporation', notes that those subjects have been seriously oppressed by the Bank's failure to control the greed, risk-taking and speculation of the banking system over which it presides; and therefore suggests that this oppression should be dealt with as the Act provides by fines three times the value of the abusive trading.


As a hundred years have gone by now, with the move to One World Government, which were started in earnest a century ago, reaching the advanced stage, the confusion from hereon can only get much much worse.  The best thing the One World Government, which does already exist, could do, is start telling the world who they are, how they got to where they are, and what they intend to do.  Only then will the growing chaos of secretive groups running the world out of sight start to unravel.  There are of course, many ugly secrets to be told, and some of those secrets might well be to do with this man.  Why doesn't Prince Charles tell us more of what he knows?

And what is his brother Andrew up to in Khazakstan?

WASP writes -

The book I referred you to THE WORLD ORDER by Eustace Mullins, is very informative, but many of your viewers might prefer to look at a video.

I found this You Tube Interview regarding this same book.
This will round off the subject, as the words come from 'THE HORSES MOUTH' so to speak.
Consider this w/r/t paying off debt
If $1/sec paid back taking a year as 365.25 days it would take to pay back $100,000 ...... 31.5576 years
or $100,000,000 ...31,557.6 years
& so on, but this is a better way of looking at it as per video.
I believe the USA Deficit is c.a.
$14.7 Trillion


A million seconds have elapsed in less than 12 days
A billion seconds took more than 35 years to tick away
A trillion seconds ago was bacck in the Stone Age,
in the year 29,607B.C.

IMF Plans Enslavement Through Debt

You would think the world had enough troubles already. But the IMF, ever keen to expand its role in the world's economic management, has seen that its objectives can best be achieved if more countries get themselves into a financial mess and become dependent on IMF feeds of cash as massive loans.

The past idea of the IMF, which was to help countries stop themselves from getting into difficulties, has now turned full circle. Now they beg as many as possible to become irresponsible with money, so that the IMF can start acting in loco parentis, ticking off naughty children, lending them money and at the same time, taxing anyone who looks like they are getting too rich.

This is a bureaucracy full of ambition for itself,and no help to the world, like all the others that we come across. Just what we need.

They demand -

higher inflation
higher taxes
lower interest rates

and offer -

easier credit terms
greater anonymity to the borrowers

This is a profligacy charter. All designed to encourage countries to spend more and make themselves dependent on outside finance, so that their democratic systems of government can progressively be ignored and overriden by the IMF and its One World Government brethren.

The WSJ reports -

During the past few weeks, the IMF has suggested that countries might aim for a higher level of inflation than central banks traditionally do, and that countries might consider using taxes and regulation to limit surges of capital that could inflate asset bubbles. Both suggestions go against years of IMF doctrine.

During the recent global recession, the IMF eased its usual requirements that countries slash spending or raise interest rates in order to qualify for rescue loans.

It also created a new loan, called the flexible credit line, for countries whose general economic policies passed IMF review. Those countries didn't have to meet specific IMF requirements to get approved.

Even so, only three countries asked the IMF for the credit line: Mexico, Colombia and Poland. Many others didn't because they feared that turning to the IMF would signal weakness to markets and to their populace. In Asia, especially, the IMF is still unwelcome because of its heavy-handed actions during the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998.

The multicountry loan would be designed to overcome such objections.

Making money available as lines of credit, even without request, ought to lessen the "stigma" attached to IMF lending, the senior official said.

Approving groups of countries, rather than individual ones, could also help reduce the chance that a crisis would spread from one nation to another.

The Asian countries saw how the IMF likes to use money to establish power over them in the Asian monetary crisis oin the 1990s. They for the most part don't want to know. Once bitten, twice shy.

Now Greece is learning how debt is enabling outsidsers to ignore their democratic preferences, and how individuals count for nothing. Their debt is becoming their EU slavery.

The answer is not get into debt if you want your democracy to survive, as with Greece and this pernicious One World Government slimeball approach from the IMF.

Britain under the Conservatives will literally be fighting for her freedom, by paying off her debts. Or if we fail to pay them off, the IMF will be delighted to set the terms of our future debt enslavement.

Monsieur Straus Kahn should be informed that he can take his cheque book and ram it elsewhere. Britain once Brown is nailed, will not be coming begging, thank you.

Market Oracle has a very disturbing report on where all this is going. I don't agree with all his ideas, but if you are interested in this topic, the conspiracy theories are worth reading. On gold for example, the balance of supply and demand explains the price level quite well. People stop buying it once the price gets too high and start selling it and mining it.

Where I have sympathy with Market Oracel, if there was proper information available as to how the world's financial system is working, there would be no need to imagine the very worst horror stories.

It is noticeable how Von Rompuy the EU President of The Commission is grabbing power away from the Heads of the Nations, and how he speaks so readily of One World Government. Out of financial crisis, those in the centre will be trying to expand their empires. See Telegraph on that ugly Von Rompuy here.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Q4 0.3% GDP Revival Was All Increased Government Spending

Mrs Thatcher on Spitting Image. She reduced Britain's debts and dependency.
The news that the recession ended (again) with growth rising in Q4 2009 to 0.3% (adjusted from 0.1%) should not be greeted with too many shouts of ecstatic joy. The growth in GDP (a pretty meaningless economic statistic at the best of times) can all be accounted for as coming from increased government spending.

This from the WSJ Europe -

According to Jefferies, a brokerage firm, government spending in the fourth quarter rose at its fastest clip since 2003. That increase more than accounted for the positive GDP reading, which means the so-called “real” economy is still struggling..

Much more significant than Q4 'adjusted' 0.3% growth figures, was the news of government revenues tumbling by £9 billion in January alone (0.6% of GDP), which came on top of the news that revenues fell by £29.6 billion to December 2009 (2% of GDP). This information means a lot more than flexi-GDP information, which can be manoeuvred easily enough by the raising of invoices, or other accounting adjustments. Cash is cash, and is not so easily lied about.

This and the news of highly authoritative Ipsos MORI Polling Organisation's tightening Tory leads is enough to keep the Pound Sterling tumbling. I don't think anyone's listening to Brown and Darling chorusing their 'recession has ended' narrative any more. Money has heard enough of the blandishments.

And The Bank Of England is suggesting another bout of QE might help. It won't. Asset prices need to fall, as does the £, so that the real economy where hungry buyers seek out bargains can drive up real growth. By pumping money in to keep asset prices up, activity is actually suppressed. A bit of egg is kept off City of London faces, and banking staff can claim huge bail-out bonuses. But to ordinary folk trying to make a living, lower house prices and property prices enable real economic activity to get started. To get a real upswing, you need the downturn to actually happen. Mrs Thatcher understood. It's tough but it works. It's called entrepreneurship.

Below - 'when I first came to this land..' sums up starting from nothing, albeit played in heavy rock mode. That's what we need to do all over again. 1980s here we come.

Euro Heartbreak Best Faced

Sarkozy appointed Strauss Kahn to head the IMF. They would like to save the Euro. But can they?
One thing you never see is an estimate of the cost of the total package required to bail-out the Euro and buy it time. Yet working from figures given in the Wall Street Journal that about 20% of GDP will be needed to take pressure of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, you come to an initial figure of Euros 315 Billion. Greece alone would need Euros 50 billion, but Greece is not the whole problem by a long chalk.

If Italy is added to the list, which would be advisable, the total goes up to Euro 600 billion (US$ 800 billion). That would be needed purely to fund the governments of these countries current expenditure and pay interest for two years or so. It would do little or nothing to turn the underlying problem around.

The situation of the banks within Europe is not addressed. There could be a similar figure required to bail these out, as the accumulated debts based on property lending and other inadequate collateral is vast. It could be ten years or more before Property prices recover sufficiently.

The scale of the overall problem is probably too big for any other entity like the IMF to consider bailing out, apart from getting the Euro through another year or so. If a first year bail-out were to cost about US$1 trillion, it might be five years before markets start to lift again. By which time the totals required would have been multiples of trillions.

The WSJ writes -

The size of any IMF rescue package is based on a multiple of that country's shareholding, or quota, in the fund. The quota is set in special drawing rights, the IMF's own monetary unit calculated daily from a basket of the world's major trading currencies.

Greece's quota is 823 million SDRs, currently about €930 million.

Under usual circumstances, the IMF can lend a country up to three times its quota but in special packages such as for Greece, the IMF can stretch its normal rules under what it calls its "exceptional access policy."

The maximum provided to any country under this policy has been 11 times its quota, given to Romania. That suggests the IMF would be hard pushed to provide Greece with substantially more than €10 billion.

How much then would be enough? Greece says it needs to sell €54 billion of bonds this year, €24 billion of that in April and May.

In a research note earlier this month, Paul Mortimer-Lee, head of market economics at BNP Paribas, said that any bailout has to have the qualities of "shock and awe." Looking at recent packages for Hungary (19% of GDP), Romania (14%) and Latvia (32%), he settled on 20% of GDP as the threshhold.

For Greece, this would mean a bailout of €50 billion. (Ireland would need €35 billion, Portugal €30 billion and Spain €200 billion.) That figure is higher than most guesses about the size of any likely German-led rescue for Greece, which peak about €25billion. But even that number— half of Paribas's "shock-and-awe" estimate— is twice the size of any bailout the IMF is likely to provide unless it stretches lending limits way beyond what it has so far.

Ratings Agencies

The other problem is that all financial organisations rely on outsiders to inform them of the risk levels for lending and investing. How can people like Moodys be able to forecast the pattern of markets in the next few years? The rating agencies have proved completely inadequate in advising about the risks inherent in subprime investments, for example, and no doubt they are well behind the mark, in realising how near to collapse the weaker European economies are too.


Even with the political will being there in Germany, and it isn't, the size of the problem is simply too big. Some writers tell the Germans that they would have a higher exchange rate if they weren't in the Euro and that the Euro has helped their manufacturing and exporting business. How is that? Germany went into the Euro at a high rate, and the Euro had until recently appreciated against the US$ over ten years by 50-60%. It was only the fact that Germans accepted pay cuts that Germany was able to remain competitive. The Euro also raised living costs in Germany with accelerating inflation. When ordinary Germans tell you they have lost out through the Euro, believe them, and not the spin-meisters whose task it is to try to save the Euro.

Ordinary Germans might be a compliant lot but coming up with $1 trillion once every other year for five or six years to save their profligate EU partners will no doubt prove beyond the realm of possibility and acceptability. Germany after all has to save her own banks. The current package of Euros 25 billion under discussion is probably only 1% of the total that would be required in the end of the day, to stand a chance of saving the Euro. And even then saving the Euro has only a chance of being achieved if the others change their behaviour, which seems highly unlikely.

If even finding 1% of what is needed is proving politically impossible, it might be wise to look at other alternatives - and that must mean Euro break up and devaluation. Sooner rather than later. Unless the IMF wants to drag out the agony any longer that is.

Heartbreak for Euro-lovers must be faced sometime.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Chinese IMF Gold Buyers Or Trees on Mars?

click chart
The Russians have put out a news story that the Chinese are going to buy the 193 tonnes of gold which is being put up for sale by the IMF. It seems that there have indeed been discussions about China buying the gold, but you can bet one thing. The Chinese will not want to buy the gold at the current spot price if they do.

They are negotiating. The Russian rumour was intended to send the market on a upwards trend again, and help to push the Chinese negotiators into a higher price. That attempt seems to have backfired.

The Russians have drawn attention to the fact that a negotiation is taking place, which indicates that the current gold price is not sustainable - the exact opposite result to the one they intended. The gold price rallied this evening (London time) but is again falling back.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it had no comment on a rumor that China is the buyer of the remaining 191.3 tons of gold the IMF is selling.

Alistair Thomson of the IMF's Press Office told that the agency does not comment on speculative stories, calling this a "sensitive area" of discussion.

The unconfirmed rumor was based on Russian news reports and some sources said it boosted gold futures prices.

In his daily commentary, Jon Nadler, Senior Analyst for Kitco Metals Inc. wrote, “According to the Russian FinMarket news Agency, Chinese officials have confirmed the intention for China to buy the remaining 191.3 tones of IMF gold that are still for sale. The rumors have however not yet been confirmed. “

The IMF announced the sale of its remaining 191.3 tons to the open market in mid-February. Reportedly the IMF couldn't sell its gold to central banks like China and India, traditional big buyers, so it had to resort to the open market.

In September 2009, the IMF announced an intention to sell 403.3 tons of gold; India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka purchased close to 212 tons by the end of the year.

It seems that the last buyer of gold is China. And they don't like the price. What's that going to do to the market in the days ahead?!!!!

In any case why would China want to pay money for gold? China is the biggest gold mining country in the world.

Market Oracle - Until this decade the Chinese mining industry was amongst the worst in the world. Gradually from 1979 onwards it allowed foreign exploration companies to explore the minerals in it’s geology. Welcoming foreign mining companies, with their expertise, capital and equipment, fed the growth of their mineral industry. From 1997 to 2007 China’s gold production rose 134%. It is now the biggest producer of gold in the world… a staggering rise.

China is well known for not wishing to pay spot prices for its sourcing of commodities. Why would she want to pay $1100 an ounce for what she can mine cheaply herself at maybe $200/300 an ounce? To keep the price high possibly, but that is not the Chinese way.

MINING WEEKLY - China said last April its official gold holdings had risen to 1 054 t from 600 t in 2003, with the increase attributed to purchases of domestically produced gold to help soak up unsold output.

FINALLY THE REAL STORY - (From Nadler on Kitco)

Well, Reuters came to the rescue of mal-informed readers and starry-eyed wishful thinkers who had been exposed to the same story by Rough & Polished over in Moscow: “The author of an article that said China had confirmed it would buy 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund said on Friday she didn't have official sources for her story.

Rough & Polished, a Moscow-based industry website, reported China had "confirmed its decision to acquire 191.3 tons of gold auctioned by the International Monetary Fund," which helped push prices up on Friday.

Contacted by Reuters, the author of the Rough and Polished story, Nadezhda Shagrova, who works as a tour guide and journalist in Shanghai, said she did not have any official information to back up her story.

"The source for the story? Well, that's been written about in lots of places. I mean, Xinhua news agency wrote about that and other official Chinese sources, lots of them. Why are you asking?"

Told that gold prices were moving on her story, she said: "No, no, there's just no way that could be because of my article."

No, of course there is no way, Nadezhda. Just try to get the facts straight next time. But, did you know that bikini models risk their health by wearing G-strings? So says Pravda. And now, for something completely…the same: trees on Mars! We kid you not. April first is at least a month away…but the silliness is rising faster than fresh dough. Jim Rogers denies having said this week that the British Pound is on the verge of collapse.

So China buying 200 tonnes of gold is a lie. As expected. But how dumb of people to believe the source and report it as credible. Does that include me? Nearly!

trees on Mars from the same website that reported China buying IMF gold, causing a $20 rally in the price. The eight year long gold price boom is now getting silly.

Euro Becomes A Bloody Shambles

I would like to find something intelligent to say about Greece and the Euro. But after reading Open Europe's summary today from all Europe's media, I see that the situation is rapidly descending into farce

The Times reports that protesters and police clashed in Greece yesterday as a strike against government austerity measures turned violent amid signs that delegations from the European Commission and International Monetary Fund currently visiting Athens will demand extra cuts amounting to at least €2 billion (£1.7 billion), as early as next month.

The Guardian notes that the pressure for greater cuts, particularly from Germany, has led to heightened tensions between the two countries. Greek Deputy Prime Minister, Theodore Pangalos, said Germany had no right to judge Greek finances after wreaking havoc on the economy during the four years that the country was under Nazi occupation in the Second World War. He added that Germany had failed to make adequate compensation. "They took away the Greek gold that was at the Bank of Greece, they took away the Greek money and they never gave it back. This is an issue that has to be faced sometime," he said.

Andreas Peschke, a spokesman at the German Foreign Ministry, replied, "A discussion about the past is not helpful to solve the problems...facing us in Europe today." The Telegraph quotes a banker saying, "How can they call the Germans incompetent Nazis and still expect a bail-out?"

Mr. Pangalos also hit out at Italy saying that it had done much more to mask the true extent of its public debt than Greece when it entered the euro and criticised the EU's leaders for their inability to agree a bailout package. "The quality of leadership in the union is very, very poor indeed," he said.

In an interview with the BBC World Service, Open Europe's Pieter Cleppe discussed the strikes in Greece, saying: "citizens in Greece need to understand that taxpayers in other countries don't feel like paying for the mistakes of governments they couldn't punish. However the crisis is not just due to the Greek government, but also to the concept of monetary union which led to artificially low interest rates and accompanying high public and private debt in periphery economies such as Greece, Spain and Ireland." The FT's Alphaville blog notes that a Dutch opinion poll over the weekend found that 92% of voters wanted Greece expelled from the eurozone.

In a letter to the FT, Open Europe supporter Sir Peter Marshall writes that the EU should concentrate on a practical outcome to the Greek crisis rather than using it as an excuse to move further toward 'political union', arguing "No democratic international organisation of any consequence" should allow itself to be "reduced to such a state of inflexibility."

Meanwhile, the BBC reports that the Commission has said it will take Greece to the European Court of Justice to recover hundreds of millions in state aid, which it claims was granted illegally to hundreds of firms through tax exemptions.

German daily Handelsblatt quotes ECB Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi saying: "The [growth] and stability pact should perhaps be tightened up...especially for countries that are experiencing a rapid rate of growth but cannot sink their deficits".

You could say that again!!!!

Mind you Lorenzo, you would do well to find anyone in a state of rapid growth now. That's what you should have done at the beginning. It sounds like the end of the road to me. How much better if the American solution were taken - temporary departure from the Euro by the Greeks, reset the exchange rate and start again later when things have calmed down....or maybe not!


The crisis is approaching a tipping point. Something has to give. Greek banks will find it hard to tap into sources of funds unless the situation is stabilised. The only sure way out is to leave the Euro and devalue. Everything else is a sticking plaster.

The FT writes Greek banks came under further pressure on Tuseday after Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit ratings of the country’s four largest banks on expectations that the real economy will worsen further as a result of the tough fiscal measures the government must take.

Ratings on National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank Ergasias and Piraeus Bank were lowered by one notch to BBB – just two notches above junk....

...Shares in all four banks ended lower on Tuesday. NBG lost 3.5 per cent, while Alpha Bank was down 2.4 per cent. EFG Eurobank Ergasias fell 2.7 per cent and Piraeus Bank was worst hit, down 5.5 per cent.

Bankers said the market was discounting an even lower credit rating for the Greek banks. Funding from the wholesale markets has been curtailed, while repo funding has been limited to relatively short periods.

As soon as the Drachma's back in action, prices can fall 30%. The kids will be booking their flights and the banks relax.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

At Last. Bringing Back Sanity To The Financial Casino

Ever wondered how the oil price could shoot up to $140 a barrel, down to $55 and then settle back at $80 or so where it started, all in a year and a half period. (Click on Chart below)

The same happened to rice making millions hungry, and yet throughout this period there was never hint of any shortage of either oil or rice.

The price was run up in the futures market, while a small number of high-rolling players got involved in a bidding-up game, forcing consumers to pay ever higher prices for essential commodities, while their profits soared. The only trouble was when the rush to the exits came, there were casualties. The financial system, which had been allowed by government to effectively become a casino, as with all gambling, was creating big winners and big losers.

It was in the 1980s and 1990s that Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton removed so many of the checks which had restrained such speculation in former times.

Now a few banks have been burned, and Congress is keen to stop the volatility of markets, and at last some of the old controls are being brought back. Too late for many of the casualties, of course, but for rebuilding the confidence of consumers and businesses, it is better late than never. The big players have got too powerful. They need pulling back.

The Crude Oil Market

Why allow wealthy and powerful organisations to effectively raise taxes on the rest of us? Are these the same people who get behind Presidential campaigns, buying influence, giving enormous pay-offs and bonuses to their staff? It seems so, but the US Congress is belatedly getting angry with what's happening and putting a stop to it.

Reported in the WSJ and elsewhere today -

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will scrutinize whether speculators in the base and precious-metals markets should be subject to trading limits, The Wall Street Journal reports. It is set to meet on March 25, to consider imposing speculative position limits on four major energy commodities—oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil.
The meeting will be part of CFTC’s look into how the commission regulates futures and options markets on commodities of finite supply, said CFTC Chairman, Gary Gensler. The meeting will be open to the public, adds

My own business has been badly affected by the same games - in the precious metal markets. This gives me hope that at last, the normal workings of supply and demand can set prices, and not high-rolling gamblers.

The Day Gordon Brown's Luck Ran Out

three eurozone countries show falling optimism in 2010.

When the real story gets to be told, the long reign of Gordon Brown over Britain, will be explained by two words - spending and debt. The economy Brown inherited in 1997 was as orderly and successful as any in the world. Debts were lower than any time since WW2. Growth was rising. Unemployment low and investment strong.

Thirteen years later, Britain faces ruin. Government spending in 2009/2010 is over GBP 800 billion (not the GBP 620 billion claimed), with revenues around GBP 450 billion down from GBP 600 billion two years before. Revenues are still falling.

The markets have accepted all that has happened to date and taken it in their stride, allowing politicial leaders to keep face and claim that the 'recession' will soon be over.

But yesterday that all changed. The realisation dawned that the debts of the high spending countries, of which Britain is the world's most glaring example, are beyond anything that the countries can possibly cope with. The spending of the British government will need to come down by at least one third, and probably more as revenues keep tumbling.

Brown's expanded state is insupportable, and markets are no longer willing to look the other way.

There is no longer anywhere to run. Britain is locked inside the EU, which bars us from access to world markets. Read the piece below taken from the FT (no links as it's subscription), and feel the level of desperation in its words and the sentiments, coming from Mervyn King.

The second that Quantitative Easing is paused, collapsing confidence seeps back in. And yet QE cannot be kept up indefinitely. And in any case, at some point asset prices have to got to be allowed to fall to the point where investors want to buy. Reality has finally arrived to break up the New Labour Debt Fantasy that government spending can solve every problem known to man.

See a video presentation on FT from John Authers explaining the situation HERE. Look especially at how consumer confidence is falling, and how that will hit asset prices. This is the US, but Mervyn King in the UK is saying very similar things.

Labour's run of luck is over. But would anyone envy David Cameron facing what he will have to face after the election?

Britain’s real medium-term problem is not rising prices, but failing growth. Risks remain on the downside. The fiscal deficit of nearly 13 per cent of output must, in the coming years, be reined in. The state, whose expansion prevented a fall into a long depression, will decline as a source of demand.

The household sector, too, is impaired. In 2008, the sector’s outstanding debts were equal to 181 per cent of disposable income. The equivalent figure in the highly indebted US was 132 per cent. UK consumers, now more nervous about their jobs, are saving keenly.

Foreign demand, meanwhile, cannot be counted upon to save the UK. Sterling has depreciated by 17 per cent over the past two years. But, as Mr King said, “recovery in our largest export market – the euro area – appears to have stalled”. British companies may be able to build market share, but the markets may be stagnant.

There you have it from the authority of the FT and the Governor of The Bank Of England. We are locked out of the world's markets by the EU, and are now being dragged down to the floor.

Not only that. We are now being approached as a possible source of funds to bail out Greece and other PIIGS to save the Euro. What a farce! We are unable to pay our own crazy levels of spending. The £ is wilting on foreign exchange markets, and now they want to dip into the funds we have deposited with the European Central Bank.

The Germans are no more willing than us to carry the burden of the Euro as it heads for collapse. The joke is over. Gordon Brown and all the other comedians who signed Europe into an impossible contract of 'Ever Closer Union', can now face up to the lunacy of their ambitions. And as usual it is markets that are calling out the truth to them. Money talks louder than politicians, and usually contradicts them. Spending is not the answer to everything, Mr Brown.


And it's no good shooting the messenger. He is said to released the 'forces of hell' onto his Chancellor Alistair Darling for admitting that the current contraction is the worst for 60 years. Telegraph Report Here.

“Nobody likes the sort of briefing that goes on,” Mr Darling said, “the forces of hell were unleashed”.

Just face it, Gordon. Your luck's run out.


Iain Dale publishes a transcript of the SKY NEWS interview with Alistair Darling in which he complains about Brown's bullying ways. You have to ask, 'would all this be coming out if the stats were all rosy?' The real budget figures will be miles away from the optimistic forecasts made in March 2009. Darling's trying to create a distraction.


For the rest of us, it's cheering up time. It's only money. Life goes on. OK. Chill.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Germany No Longer European

When Britain's most pro-EU newspaper writes an article like this, you know that things are getting serious. Gideon Rachman explains in the FT how the financial crisis looks set not to be the expander of EU power, as Brussels hopes and expects, but the reason for it to fall apart.

He writes -

A logical political response to Greek insolvency – and the threat of similar crises in Spain, Portugal and eventually Italy – might be to create common European taxes and a mechanism for big fiscal transfers between EU states. These are features that help smooth a currency union in the US, but that do not yet exist in Europe.

But there is no sign of any such move. Europe is stuck. So what has gone wrong? The problem is that the “economics first, politics later” method is almost Marxist in its assumption that economics will inevitably dictate a particular political response. But democratic politics involves choice.

The traditional EU method could only work when the political changes prompted by earlier economic decisions did not seem deeply controversial or unfair to ordinary voters. But the kind of political integration required by the euro affects ordinary citizens at a very basic level – since it involves big choices about taxation and spending.

As a result, it exposes a truth that ardent pro-Europeans are very reluctant to acknowledge. Most citizens of the EU still feel far more attached to their own nation than to the Union. “Europeans” are much less willing to bail each other out than they are to bail out their own fellow countrymen. West Germany spent billions to turn around East Germany. But there is little sign that the Germans are willing to spend further billions to turn around Greece – with the spectre of similar crises to come in Spain and Italy. The Germans may feel very “European” in principle. But when they are asked to start writing large cheques to support a bankrupt Greek state, they start to feel strangely German again.

The Germans don't want to bail out the PIGS.

Any more we need to know. Not really.

The one thing Germany does still advocate is a European Army.

It already has one by the way in NATO. Why not just change its name? After all, what's the North Atlantic got to do with it? The Feeble European Military Dependency sums it up better...FEMD.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Brown - Dictator Of A Banana Republic

Recent days have been focused on Brown's bullying dictatorial ways. Tonight attention is returning to another of his less charming qualities - his liking for electoral rigging practices.

Iain Dale says the report on the Glenrothes byelection is about to be published by the Electoral Commission. (Whoops! It's a rare Iain Dale lapse. He meant Glasgow East), and it is not expected to be good for Labour.

(There are so many rigged seats, we get them muddled up)

This was the report on the Glenrothes election last year on the BBC website.


The Electoral Commission said the conduct of the count, last November, "went smoothly despite many challenges faced by the electoral administrators".
However, it said some areas where the votes were being counted and collated were obscured from view.

It also voiced concern over aspects of the arrangements for postal voting.
Lindsay Roy held on to the Westminster seat for Labour with a majority of more than 6,000 in the by-election, which was held following the death of sitting MP John MacDougall.

'Many challenges'
In a report on the administration of the by-election, the Electoral Commission said it was run well by Fife Council in difficult circumstances.
But the commission report stated: "We do have some concerns that the count was not as transparent as it could have been, due to the layout of tables in the hall.
"One table where votes were being counted was not clearly within the view of candidates, agents or other observers.

"Also, the central tables where the votes for each candidate were collated were situated behind the returning officer's platform and obscured from view."
The report also said the first opening of returned postal votes did not take place until the day before polling day.

Had this been done sooner, the commission said, a problem which arose with the electronic scanning equipment used to help adjudicate postal votes could have been resolved more quickly.

"The timing of the postal vote openings and the potential consequences of that timetable gave us cause for concern," stated the report.

To think that Britain, the mother of modern democracy, has been brought to this state. If Brown wasn't such a hard-hearted selfish bully, he would feel ashamed of what he has done. The trouble is, he intends to do exactly the same again, and rig seats in the General Election.

The penalty for defrauding elections should be the maximum allowed by the law. Brown is a traitor to his country, and should be impeached.

Report on the missing records from Glenrothes HERE.


In December the SNP in Glenrothes applied to the sheriff court to obtain a copy of the marked electoral register—on which officials in polling stations score out voters as they register to vote. It is the official record of who presented themselves to vote.

Candidates and their agents are allowed to see a copy of the register, which records only who voted and not how they voted.

However, after repeated requests for the document last month, Councillor John Beare, the convener of the SNP Central Fife constituency, has been told that it has gone missing.

Mr Beare said he was told renovation work has been carried out at Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court and that some documentation had been removed for confidential waste disposal.

Under the present electoral arrangements, certain papers including voting papers and a copy of the marked electoral register are to be kept by the sheriff clerk for that electoral area for a year after an election.

Last night Central Fife SNP MSP Tricia Marwick said the missing record of who voted places a question mark over the result.

Asked if she suspected foul play, she said, “ No I do not. Nor do I believe it was a fair election.

“All I can say for sure is that the crucial information that proves it one way or another has gone missing.

We await the Glasgow East report with baited breath. Dale twittered his mistake to me five minutes after me posting this.

PIIGS To Get Snouts Into British Trough

The Greek bail-out gets ever closer. The one being proposed is tiny in comparison to the debts, at Euros 20-25 billion and will not come close to paying them off, or turning round Greece's economy. The bail-out might send a signal to the markets. But will it?

There is something else.

As Dan Hannan writes in his Telegraph blog HERE, the way the bail-out is being explained by Germany (Der Spiegel) implies that non-Eurozone countries are going to be tapped as well as Euro countries. This will do wonders to Brown's pre-election popularity, and cause an outcry in Britain. 'Brits to Bail Out Pigs' will scream from The Sun.

The Greek bail-out will only delay a similar move for the other PIIGS, and will only be the first in Greece. It is setting an awful precedent. The impossibility of heading off the Euro's crash is not being faced. They prefer to delay and hope a recovery turns up.


As Dan Hannan ends his blog post, thank God we're not in the Euro.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Cameron Is No JFK.

This is the speech that J.F.Kennedy made, which is thought by some to be the reason he was assassinated. He describes the methods and the moves of the creation of One World Government, the same 'OWG', that Von Rompuy, the EU Commission President and Gordon Brown talk of in such glowing terms.

Those who stand in its way are either assassinated. Mountbatten. Neave. Fortuyn. JFK. RFK. Or media assassinated - IDS, and Thatcher, for example.

Those who want David Cameron to charge headlong at the OWG's powers and renegotiate Britain's freedom, should remember how dangerous a course that is for Cameron personally to consider.

It is better for his survival to remain a little cryptic, to appear indecisive, even a little weak - exactly as he is puzzlingly doing on many occasions. Yet when it matters, he shows he has the ability to turn on the strength when he needs to. The same goes for Hague. Strength and decision in denial is the way to survive. The JFK approach is not...sadly.

Those who don't obey are cut down, whether President, Royal or Prime Minister.

Those who comply, of course, are rewarded and provided with every advantage for life.

URL Link To Same Video.

Candy Floss At The Job Centre.

This is brilliant, Labour's latest election slogan, I mean. With the Pound crashing on the foreign exchanges, spending in the shops hitting new lows, and 7 million out of work, here is the slogan to sum it all up. After thirteen years of Labour in power, things are now so bad in the present time, and the past so wretched, the only thing that can be spoken of safely, is the future.

Of all the Labour spin-meister's works, this is surely the greatest. The middle ground is lost. The third way is buried. Cool Britannia has burned. All that is left is the future, the promise of an equivalent misery for us all, as we live on despairing in Brown's bankrupt Britain. With no one prepared to believe his tarnished 'how I saved the world' version of history, or ignore our current slide down the world's rankings of every significant measure, the only thing left for him to safely exaggerate is what is to come.

Sweet, isn't it, that he still wants to try.

And because we're Brits, we pretend to believe him, as we don't like upsetting folk unnecessarily. He might come back on screen again as last week, and cry some more, if we're beastly to Gordon. It's better to be nice to Gordon if we don't want him to blub.

It's only another month or so. And we won't have to pretend any longer and he'll be gone. Phew!!!

Meanwhile, tell us more about this utopian dream, Gordon. Will it be like Disneyland? Can we all look forward to candy floss at the Job Centre? Will we all get free rides on the bus home after collecting our social security? And can we all look forward to a donkey ride once a year at the sea-side?

Such a nice gentle man.
Shame really.

There should be a statue of him erected in Parliament Square, his face looking up angrily to the sky with his huge mouth open for the kids to pass through, and slide down to their unemployed Dads waiting patiently below. It would be a fitting remembrance of the Brown Years for future generations, as they struggle to pay off his debts.

PICTURE - borrowed from those two naughty boys, Tim Montgomerie and Jonathan Isaby.

And another good one -

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Thirteen Years And Counting

I have been writing for some months that the Chancellor's figures for Britain's government borrowing this year appear to be a gross underestimate. It is 'pleasing', therefore to see, at last, the news media starting to say the same kind of things. They claim the January accounts which showed revenues down £9 billion prompted them to realise the true situation. Yet even by December revenues since April were down £29.6 billion, and earlier months had been showing a declining trend. Yet for some reason Darling was allowed to keep on repeating his £178 billion figure unchallenged, which seemed odd to me.

This morning, however, I don't want to go over all that again, especially if such thoughts are moving from bloggers to the main stream of the media and the markets. Instead I find myself being greatly 'cheered up' (not my style to be cheerful when things are bad. I prefer brutal honesty) by this list of Labour's achievements in power, placed in the comments on Guido by 13 Years And Counting.

Read it and weep. Why not? We've seen all our 'New' Labour's top brass desperately trying for the sympathy vote on TV recently, crying their eyes out, as the bullies finally crack.

Take a look. Now it's our turn to weep.

THESE ARE BROWN’S ACHIEVEMENTS AS PM AND CHANCELLOR, the legacy your families will pay for generations to come.

-22,500 of debt for every child born in Britain
- 111 tax rises from a government that promised no tax rises at all
- The longest national tax code in the world
- 100,000 million pounds drained from British pension funds
- Gun crime up by 57%
- Violent crime up 70%
- The highest proportion of children living in workless households anywhere in Europe
- The number of pensioners living in poverty up by 100,000
- The lowest level of social mobility in the developed world
- The only G7 country with no growth this year
- One in six young people neither earning nor learning
- 5 million people on out-of –work benefits
- Missing the target of halving child poverty
- Ending up with child poverty rising in each of the last three years instead
- Cancer survival rates among the worst in Europe
- Hospital-acquired infections killing nearly three times as many people as are killed on the roads
- Falling from 4th to 13th in the world competitiveness league
- Falling from 8th to 24th in the world education rankings in maths
- Falling from 7th to 17th in the rankings in literacy
- The police spending more time on paperwork than on the beat
- Fatal stabbings at an all-time high
- Prisoners released without serving their sentences
- Foreign prisoners released and never deported
- 7 million people without an NHS dentist
- Small business taxes going up
- Business taxes raised from among the lowest to among the highest in Europe
- Tax rises for working people set for after the election
- The 10p tax rate abolished
- And the ludicrous promise to have ended boom and bust
- Our gold reserves sold for a quarter of their worth
- Our armed forces overstretched and under-supplied
- Profitable post offices closed against their will
- One of the highest rates of family breakdown in Europe
- The ‘Golden Rule’ on borrowing abandoned when it didn’t fit
- Police inspectors in 10,Downing Street
- Dossiers that were dodgy
- Mandelson resigning the first time
- Mandelson resigning the second time
- Mandelson coming back for a third time
- Bad news buried
- Personal details lost
- An election bottled
- A referendum denied

Hat Tip - 13 Years And Counting, commenter on Order Order.

As you dry your eyes after reading that list and dwelling on our collapsing finances, turn a thought to why every day our TV screens are filled with weeping celebs. The Prime Minister's had a go, his wife, Alastair Campbell and a host of others. Tiger Woods is at at it this morning, exposing a vulnerable side I personally would rather not know about. If you're going to shag half the world's women, get on with it, and enjoy the ride, as it were. But don't come blubbing to the rest of us about the consequences. He should take his punishment in silence.

Is it only me? I've had enough of all the sobbing, and begging for foregiveness at the altar of mass communication. The Coles are coming next, with yet more false tears being shed for popular consumption.

If nothing else, I hope Cameron won't be a blubber. We need leadership, and urgently. Decisions, and a way out of the mess that Britain's 'charming' socialist ways have made of our country. Tear shedders are a waste of time. We need action.

PICTURE AT TOP - hat tip Old Rightie.

Daily Mail - Labour strategists say to activists - 'don't mention our record in power'.

And from Guido today - from David Wright MP (haha!) Telford Labour who called Conservagtives scum sucking pigs recently.

Ballot Boxes are interfered with

Voting registers go missing

The Police can kill innocent people and get away with it

The state can kill people and get away with it

You can be put in prison for 42 days on pure suspicion

You can be put in prison indefinitely on the word of a politician

The State can torture people

Your children are monitored at School by Political Officers

Their behaviour is logged on a State database for their entire lives

Your innocent fingerprints, iris scans and biometrics are held by the State

You do not have the right to remain silent

You are watched on 4 million CCTV cameras

You may not photograph the Police

The media is controlled by the State

You do not have the right to protest peacefully

Curfews exist for entire communities

Your travel movements are logged and monitored

Who you vote for is logged and monitored

Your shopping habits are studied and logged by the State

Your emails and telephone conversations are recorded by the State

Your passport can be withdrawn at the whim of the State

Government agencies can use lie detector tests on you.

13 years of Labour.

PS “A future fair for all” is an anagram of “Our fearful fat liar”

UPDATE - The original author of 13 Years And Counting was this fella -

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Darling's Forecast Is Utter Conkers

News today tells us that January 2010 saw a further fall in government revenue to the tune of £9.1 billion below forecast. If this is added to the £29.6 billion which revenues were out by at end December 2009, we get a ten month figure of a shortfall of just under £40 billion against Darling's projection.

In cash required terms, January 2010 was down by £13.1 billion on 2009, which suggests that not only is revenue (income) coming in below level, but expenditure too is rising ahead of projections, possibly by £4 billion a month if January is typical (it might not be, but expenditure is likely to be rising).

The thought then is this.

How the Hell can Darling keep claiming his budgeted borrowing requirement of £175 billion, is still on track?

He made his borrowing forecast in April 2009 based on an income (revenue) projection of £496 billion, which is now likely to be coming in nearer £450 billion. He made an expenditure of £671 billion which can hardly have fallen and has in all probability risen to let's guess, say £700 billion? If January is typical it might be £720 billion by April.

His borrowing requirement must surely be not £175 billion as he keeps claiming, but at least £250 billion by April 2010, a mere 17.5% of GDP from general expenditure.

There is another category of expenditure in his accounts, which he calls 'interventions'. These have raised his expenditure as at January 2010 by a further £105 billion, not brought into his main budget. Has he slipped a bit of normal expenditure across into this special category, so he can disguise the fact that his revenues have fallen by 10% of projections, and his general spending is up be maybe 5%?

Whatever is going on, it seems impossible that he can be anywhere near the figures he forecast at April 2009, when he assumed the recession would be over during this financial year. To my simple mind, the man's talking utter conkers.

Read the forecasts for yourself all with pretty pie charts HERE from the 2009 Budget.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

IMF Gold Sales Will Jolt Confidence Further

This AFP Report declares that the IMF has decided to pick this very moment to announce further gold sales. They will not be allowed to disrupt the gold market, you understand, and the sales will be made on-market in phases or to governments and central banks if any takers can be found.

This however, as far as the gold market is concerned could not be a worse time to announce, pulling the rug from under what amounts to a very tentative rally. Physical demand for gold worldwide fell by 11% in 2009, while mining supply and scrap reprocessing rose 11%. The market is barely clinging on to its nine year bull phase which saw the price rise from $250 an ounce to $1220 two months ago.

The EU's troubles are ratcheting liquidity pressures onto the IMF, with the PIGS needing major refinancing packages, whether they stay inside the Euro or not. The Euro was held up only for two days by the declaration of solidarity from the EU summit last week, and already this evening, the currency is slipping away under further speculative attack, back at $1.36.

Gold sales could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back, sending commodity markets, many currencies and stock markets back onto a declining basis.

The time to declare sales is in the middle of the bull market, not when the requirement for funds is obvious for all to see. One can never be sure with markets but somehow you wonder how long the risk appetite of the bulls can hold up amongst all the evidence of financial crisis building. Each day that goes by, things seem closer to another earth-shattering financial event. China is reining in lending. The Euro is close to cracking. QE is having to be halted to keep government debts in check. The IMF might well have missed the boat this time, and their ill-timed actions bring the nine year gold rally to a halt.

USA Suggests PIGS Take Euro Holidays

Professor Martin Feldstein, member of President Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Team

The sheer impossibility of cutting Greece's fiscal deficit by cutting expenditure is beginning to dawn on the world. Germany might imagine that cuts will reduce outgoings, but incomings are also likely to fall by a similar amount, with GDP tumbling.

There are really no easy options, as to how to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. One idea being suggested is nearer the mark (no pun intended). That is to give Greece a temporary leave of absence from the Euro.

The idea is explained like this in the FT.

The rest of the eurozone could allow Greece to take a temporary leave of absence with the right and the obligation to return at a more competitive exchange rate.

More specifically, Greece would shift its currency from the euro to the drachma, with an initial exchange rate of one euro to one drachma. Bank balances and obligations would remain in euros. Wages and prices would be set in drachma.

If the agreement called for Greece to return at an exchange rate of 1.3 drachmas per euro, the Greek currency would immediately fall by about 30 per cent relative to the euro and other non-euro currencies. If there is little or no induced inflation in Greece, Greek products would be substantially more competitive in both domestic and foreign markets.

In exchange for permission to reset its exchange rate, Greece would have to agree to tough fiscal measures to bring its budget deficit down quickly and keep it down. Although the higher cost of imports would cut local real incomes, damage would be limited by the fact that imports are less than 20 per cent of total Greek GDP.

One problem would be that other Euro countries would feel aggrieved at handing Greece so much competitive advantage. Another would be how many times can any one country use this method of resetting their exchange rate? Another would be the blow to prestige in Athens and Brussels.

Saving face, however, isn't going to weigh much with international financiers looking at potential default. The crisis will drive towards one solution or another.

The writer of the article in the FT suggesting this is Martin Feldstein, Harvard Professor of Economics, and a member of The US President's Economic Recovery Advisory Team.

MORE ON GREECE - Cash transactions over 1500 Euros are made illegal in an attempt to reduce the size of the Black Economy in Greece. Link to The Conservative Blog.


Open Europe - Writing in the FT Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard, argues: "temporary financial patches will not deal with the real problem" and proposes that a solution could be: "The rest of the eurozone could allow Greece to take a temporary leave of absence with the right and the obligation to return at a more competitive exchange rate." He adds, "The European economic and monetary union is doubly flawed" since it "forces diverse countries to live with a single interest rate and exchange rate that cannot be appropriate for all members."

Writing in Le Figaro columnist Yves de Kerdrel argues that the "problem isn't Greece, it is the euro". Meanwhile, Hans Eichel, who was German Finance Minister when Greece adopted the Euro, says in Focus that the "Euro entry of Greece was a mistake".

Yesterday, customs officials in Greece went on strike, and elsewhere a bomb exploded outside the Athens office of JP Morgan, causing no reported injuries.