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Sunday, December 20, 2009

Labour Do Hung Parliament Narrative To Death


The latest twist in the roller-coaster ride in the polls which has happened in the last three months is for MORI to give the Conservatives a 17% lead in their last pre-Christmas delayed declaration.

As I have said constantly over recent weeks, the polls have followed the ‘narrative’ taking a 20% Conservative lead six months ago, down to a 6% lead in the infamous Ipsos MORI effort in November.

I have tracked the history of this change of direction from the point of view of the narrative, showing how the first person to mention the Hung Parliament was Michael Heseltine, and the second was Ken Clarke. This happened as Cameron was espousing his policy of Lisbon rebellion.

The HP narrative notably started inside the europhile wing of the Conservative Party, who were angry at Cameron’s stance.

It should be noted that today's MORI Poll showing a 17% Conservative lead does not mean the end of the Hung Parliament Narrative.

In The Guardian today, you read this -

Labour believes that, despite the PBR, it can still recover reasonably swiftly to a position where it is just 10 or so points behind the Tories in the new year, a gap narrow enough to give it hope going into an election campaign.

That tells you to expect another poll first off in the New Year from the ‘narrative-compliant’ pollsters giving a 10% lead to the Conservatives.

The game is not over yet.

(UPDATE - In fact a 9% lead was delivered by Com Res the very next day, almost as if it were an order being carried out)

They will be back at it again in January, they assure us, manufacturing the expectation of a Hung parliament.

Once the expectation is again in place, they can move from there to preparing their election-rigging strategies to bring the result about.

They will also no doubt be attempting to neutralise the effect that the new independent pollster Angus Reid Strategies is having on their plans.

It was the gap between MORI's 6% and ARS' 17% Conservative lead that did most to undercut the Hung Parliament Narrative, which has no doubt contributed to the decision to temporarily 'suspend' the HPN over the Christmas period.

They want to send everyone back to sleep, as many were becoming alerted to the discrepancies and the 'poor field work' in the polls giving the Conservatives 6%, 8% and 10% leads.

They will, meantime, no doubt try to exclude Angus Reid Strategies from pre-election polling in some way, so that they get things back as they like them, where they can create an expectation of the election result they desire, the one they intend to deliver, just like they did in 2005.

And yes, there does seem to be a whip effect being played out on Cameron to be a good boy, by Heseltine, Clarke and their friends in high places. Since Cameron's Lisbon speech, he is no longer trusted by the Europhiles. The controllers will do everything in their power to keep him at bay, and crush his efforts to hold out hopes for British Sovereignty.

Have no fear. They'll be back again with poll-rigging to the fore. New Labour and all their trickery will be as hard to kill off as Rasputin. See Guardian article containing Labour's promised New Year narrative HERE.



SIR BOB WORCESTER of Ipsos MORI.

UPDATE - Bob Worcester of Ipsos MORI explains his new poll results at a 17% Conservative lead up from 6% last time he reported as follows -

The impact of the PBR moved the economic optimism in the country from last month’s 46% believing the economy was going to improve in the next 12 months falling precipitously to 32%. At the same time, the satisfaction level of Gordon Brown fell another 10 points, to just 28% and the government also by 10 points, to 21%.

If he's right, then any more bad economic news and Labour might find they cannot manage expectations to a Hung Parliament after all. No wonder they're rushing to the finishing post, and looking at a March 25th Election date. But another small voice in the back of your mind says that at Angus Reid Strategies, the Conservative lead never left 17%, and that Bob Worcester is using the PBR as his face saver.

Another safe prediction -

If the other narrative-compliant pollsters don't bottle out of complying with Labour's polling demands in January and produce yet more Hung Parliament-compliant polling results, Labour will be pumping their economic achievements at the same time. Labour will be announcing the end of the recession at the moment they call the election. The question is, will anyone still believe them, or their wavering pollsters by then?

Maybe more of the pollsters will start pulling up the white flag as Bob Worcester has done this week. It's only a month ago, if you remember that he managed to grant Labour a substantial polling lead in London, based on the views of only 50 people, which did seem pretty barmy. Nice to see him back in the realm of sanity. Let's hope he stays around, and a few others from the narrative-obeying pack come across and join him.

Sir Bob Worcester's Bio on Wiki -

He was made an Honorary Knight Commander of The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire in 2004 in recognition of the “outstanding services rendered to political, social and economic research and for contribution to government policy and programmes”. He took British citizenship later that year, and in 2005 his knighthood was made substantive[1] (allowing him to use the title "Sir").

Clearly Sir Bob Worcester owes much to New Labour for his advancement, but then, for sure, they no doubt owe him and his ilk quite a lot for theirs! Perhaps Christmas is a good time for all narrative-compliant pollsters to be considering the best place for their future loyalties to lie. After all, Rasputins usually end up getting done in one way or another. Why be amongst the casualties?

23 comments:

Fact Checker said...

Heseltine and Clarke were not the first people to call a hung parliament. Thick as Thieves called it first on order-order.com.
Get your facts straight, eh?
Good lad.

tapestry said...

OK. Give us a time and date, and we'll check the facts. Heseltine was on BBC Hardtalk.

Fact Checker said...

Go to orderorder.com type hung parliament and Thick as Thieves into the search engine and all will be revealed.
And I think it quite safe to say that the poster in question is not a Labour supporter.
Do you need someone to wipe your backside for you as well for you Tapestry?

tapestry said...

Thick as Thieves first reference to HP was June 9th 2009 which is way too early. The only Thick As Thieves HP reference during the Hung Parliament Narrative era was November 24th 2009 which was way too late.

Fact Checker said...

Too early? Too late?
Very weak Tapestry, weak as water.
The first person to predict a hung parliament was Thick as Thieves and he did so as you have verified on June 9th 2009.
These are the facts of the matter.
The person who created the narrative of a hung parliament was Thick as Thieves. Which rather torpedoes the theory you have presented on this post.

tapestry said...

wrong I'm afraid!!

A Check on Conservativehome reveals Ken Clarke had talked on an HP as likely in January 2009.

He resurrected his comment in November 2009 after Cameron's Lisbon speech, when Conservative polling was suggesting a sizeable majority.

Thick As Thieves was not the original, I regret to say. It was Ken Clarke - as I say a Conservative europhile.

Fact Checker said...

So now you wish to change the terms of the debate from who predicted a hung parliament and actually began the narrative to who briefly mentioned it in passing.
Clarke mentioned it once you say.
Weaker and weaker Tapestry.
You do know what a narrative is, don't you?
Look, you have been defeated in debate, you are now twisting and turning like a New Labour SpAD.
Admit defeat.

Fact Checker said...

Tapestry, are you telling us that David Cameron has promoted to the shadow cabinet someone who has no faith in his party's ability to win the general election?
Oh dear, you, my friend, are in the process of single-handedly wrecking the Tory party's narrative of electoral success.
Tory HQ will not be happy with you sunshine.

tapestry said...

As to the facts, I was interested to see if there anything different to say, but I see nothing.

As for the Ken Clarke conundrum, not guilty. He's older than me and I never met his mother.

If this is about energy, then you win.

Fact Checker said...

Fact: 21st April not 9th June was the first HP salvo deployed by Thick as Thieves.
Almost a full two months before you claimed.

Fact Checker said...

Hey, I was just trying to help get your comments section moving a bit.
Merry Christmas Tapestry.

tapestry said...

Yes. Comments needed a boost. Thanks. Merry Christmas. It can get lonely behind the keyboard with no reaction from the world!!

Do you want an HP?

Surely the likelihood of an HP is receding this week.

I am sure you will get the credit you deserve for your early insight.

Fact Checker said...

During this time of war and recession a coalition government would be in the best interests of the country.
Do you really think there is an decrease in the likelihood of an HP because the Conservative's lead has increased in the polls? As you are a Conservative I am sure you are relieved to see the numbers improve but I imagine the great British public are feeling rather confused about the contradictory nature of the poll numbers and that uncertainty means any effect the polls may have upon the voters is diluted.
Tony Blair tricked Tories to vote for New Labour. David Cameron has proved unable to achieve the same trick upon Labour voters.
And that is a major problem for the Tories.

tapestry said...

I think my views are clear enough on my blog Fact Checker. But thanks for giving yours.

The public see Labour as corrupt and incompetent. Cameron obviously has broad appeal and is trusted. Labour are trying to persuade people to see him as a Toff. I would be surprised if they succeed.

Fact Checker said...

Now you have moved from fact to propaganda. But as it is almost Christmas and this is the Season of Goodwill I will call a ceasefire (before you ban me).
Regards,
Fact Checker

tapestry said...

I can do facts, propaganda, humour, serious - anything that's required. That's why I write hours a day for zilch.

Good night. I'm working Hong Kong time. Peace be with you.

Tcheuchter said...

"The public see Labour as corrupt and incompetent"

It seems to me that the public are also seeing the Conservatives as corrupt and incompetent, the LibDems too.

Is it not possible that the time is coming for the electorate to be thinking "outside the box"; the box of three, that is?

tapestry said...

At this point, the public have just enough trust to give the Conservatives one more try. It's been twelve long years of Labour. They want a change.

If the Conservatives break trust with the electorate, then the minors such as UKIP, currently on 4%, for example might make a breakthrough.

They came second in the EP elections with 2.4 million votes. But for UKIP to break through, the Conservatives have to self destruct. That has not happened. Cameron is steady as she goes, and is to some extent trusted.

Tcheuchter said...

The extent is not reaching as far as me.

tapestry said...

Trust is always relative and conditional. Usually it has to be earned. I am sure David Cameron will be working on you....and of course, it is only when these characters finally get their hands on the tiller that we see which way they like to sail the boat.

Let's talk again in a year's time. We will have a lot more idea by then in all probability.

ken from glos said...

As predicted another one of those polls on the way tom in the Independent

tapestry said...

The poll coming is narrative compliant. Read the words in the blog post above carefully.

'fairly quickly' '10% or so' etc, and here it is to order.

The Bob Worcester abandoning of the narrative is only a temporary phenomenon.

Don't forget what the narrative says, Ken. Labour will reduce the COnservative lead by 8%, 5% coming from Lib Dem and 3% from Others by election day.

That predicts that a 3% Conservative lead will be polled nearer the election. Then the result can confidently be predicted to match the forecast.

Rigging is quite clearly being planned, if all these things come to pass.

tapestry said...

Correction (just woke up!). Current poll gives 9% lead not 11%! so Labour will be targeting polls at a 1% Conservative lead. (9-8=1)