Saturday, May 31, 2008
Ireland: Another Unofficial Report Says No Will Win
This from Jonny -
Hi, I'm with a group called We Are Change who have been actively campaigning on the streets for a No vote since December. I firmly believe that No will win. The No side are putting in so much effort to educate the People. Most of the people I've come across while out in the street were going to vote No.
We've also been doing door to door work which have turned a lot of 'undeciders' into 'No voters' in the matter of minutes! We've handed out over 100,000 fliers so far and 1000s of Documentary. Our documentary End of Nations - EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty is now number 1 watched movie in Ireland on Google Video! Over 100,000 views!
The RED C poll RTE News has reported on where the Yes side are leading by 10% is nothing because in the same polls conducted under the Nice Treaty the Yes side were apparently ahead by 30% which ended up nearly going the other way in the actual Referendum! Anyway that's my 2 cents! :P Keep up the good work on the blog! :D
I checked Jonny's Youtube claim. They have had about 90,000 views over the approximately 15 videos that they've uploaded onto Youtube. That claim stacks up, so maybe his other claims do too. With a population the size of Ireland's - about 4 million, that's a significant number of hits. I hope these guys keep reporting in. They sound very buoyant.
The main group fighting Lisbon is Ireland are Libertas.
UPDATE - May 31st. Betting is moving in the NO direction a tad. As I posted on www.politicalbetting.com today
I checked out Paddy Power to see how the YES/NO betting is going on the Lisbon referendum. Betting has moved slightly suggesting YES is becoming less likely, and NO more likely.
YES was 1/4 on 26th May, according to Mike Smithson. Now it is 2-7. NO was 5/2, now 9/4. I think I’m reading right and should add that I’m not a great understander of betting markets. The move in the price is significant however two weeks out from the vote, and with unofficial reports from the NO campaign becoming increasingly bouyant.
I’ve posted a couple of these reports on my blog. Mike thought on the 26th that the vote will be close but resulting with a slight victory for the YES. One poster alleges that Irish polling is not all that reliable, so reports from ground level are interesting.